Is it conceivable that Donald Trump himself, or his henchmen, staged one or more of the  reported assassination attempts on him? Sure it is. Highly conceivable. Falsehood is the name of the Trump game. Buy let's try another question, normally the first asked by level-headed people when presented with a (yet another) conspiracy theory. Is there plain, verifiable evidence that's what happened?

For a one-word answer: No. 

Conspiracy theories are born when people with imagination (possibly in obese proportions?) string together a disjointed collection of details to identify a singular nefarious ”plot" behind them all. We've been used to bored imaginations creating and sharing a smorgasbord of elaborate theories, largely from the political right, QAnon among the more legendary. The “deep state” has planted deep roots in the consciousness of too many. We’re also used to conspiracy theories from the left being, if not entirely mythical, at least uncommon. 

That pattern hasn’t entirely altered; most observers of political populism still find conspiracist thinking more plentiful on or from the right. But anecdotally, at the very least, under Trump 2.0 especially, at home and abroad, a conspiracist approach to life’s ever-deeper and more incendiary political trench warfare seems to be taking root more, in the progressive camp as well. Nowhere more so than in following the bizarre machinations of Donald Trump and his movement.

A notable case in point are false flag theories on the Trump assassination attempts. Some of these have targeted the September 2024 incident at one of Trump’s Florida golf clubs and/or the much more recent Whitehouse Correspondents’ Dinner shooting. But the more prominent examples, and by far the most attention, have focussed on the July 2024 Butler, Pennsylvania rally shooting. The broad idea uniting this suite of theories is a belief that “Butler” was staged or faked for a political benefit of some kind. Under that umbrella specific theories include:

• Trump arranged the whole incident himself;
• The injury to his ear was faked (e.g. using a “blood capsule” theatre prop);
• Trump posted on X that his ear had miraculously “grown back”, having been obliterated;
• The shots were either blanks or not intended to strike him;
• Security failed intentionally as part of the theatre, for some purpose;
• Various alleged causes of the injury, other than a bullet;
• It was all planned to create a powerful election campaign image.

Now let me be a little bit frank with fellow progressives (yes, this is more or less my own tribe) at this point. Reflecting on innumerable conversations with peers over many years, we’ve together expressed bewilderment and frustration with more right-leaning associates who swallow conspiracy theories with no evident interest in, or even outright rejection of, fact checking. Well here’s the thing. All of the above theories have been investigated by well reputed fact checking teams, groups we would generally trust for sorting fact from fiction, who’ve solidly debunked the lot. Not only that; most of the debunks were published within days of the incident, two years ago.

Grasping fully why false flag theories and the like are catching on left of centre is a little beyond the paygrade of this writer, who is no social scientist. But perhaps it might be as simple as our sheer exhaustion with a political landscape we can no longer define, that no longer makes sense to us. One staff writer from Slate, for instance observes, “You … have a populace that is just really feeling powerless in a way that they didn't during the first Trump administration. And here I'm talking about sort of the liberal opposition. And people have just been worn down by the sort of relentless lying that does come out of the Trump administration, which is not to say that I think it is justified to have these conspiracy theories, but I do think that at this point, this is just how people process information”. That’s from a short NPR podcast, and worth a listen. 

All of which may suggest this (ignoring all conspiracy theories) is easier said than done. But let’s try, at least, to stay away from rabbit holes. Even if many of our friends are frolicking there.